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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 46

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 10-K.Huber punts 42 yards to JAX 4, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-12-A.Erickson.

The Three Options

GO -0.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.84 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 46, worth -2.82 EP
KICK -1.53 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.96 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 13, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model