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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 50

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(6:43) 10-K.Huber punts 35 yards to JAX 15, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 85-J.Mickens.

The Three Options

GO -0.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.62 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 50, worth -3.01 EP
KICK -1.97 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -3.01 EP
PUNT -0.73 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 14, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP