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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 9 at the 89

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 16

What Actually Happened

(14:54) 10-K.Huber punts 52 yards to JAX 37, Center-46-C.Harris. 85-J.Mickens for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -3.16 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.55 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 89, worth -5.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 46, worth -2.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model