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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 3 at the 44

Buffalo Bills 0 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(4:58) 6-C.Schmidt punts 36 yards to NYJ 8, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-14-J.Webb.

The Three Options

GO +0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.88 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 44, worth -2.61 EP
KICK -1.32 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -3.03 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 12, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP