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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 7 at the 14

New York Jets 31 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(6:46) 7-C.Catanzaro 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +0.90 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.29 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 14, worth -1.06 EP
KICK +1.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.29 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24, worth -1.71 EP
PUNT -0.93 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model