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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 40

New York Jets 24 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(13:08) 4-L.Edwards punts 31 yards to BUF 9, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 23-M.Hyde.

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.47 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 40, worth -2.50 EP
KICK -1.08 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.45 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -3.32 EP
PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP