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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 6 at the 71

Buffalo Bills 7 – New York Jets 17

What Actually Happened

(8:45) 6-C.Schmidt punts 51 yards to NYJ 20, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 25-E.McGuire to NYJ 30 for 10 yards (35-M.Tolbert; 40-T.Vallejo).

The Three Options

GO -1.84 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.52 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 71, worth -4.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 29, worth -1.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model