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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 5 at the 56

New York Jets 10 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(3:30) 4-L.Edwards punts 43 yards to BUF 13, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 23-M.Hyde to BUF 25 for 12 yards (54-B.Carter).

The Three Options

GO -0.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.62 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 56, worth -2.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.75 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 17, worth -0.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model