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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 65

New York Jets 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(13:16) 4-L.Edwards punts 39 yards to BUF 26, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 23-M.Hyde. PENALTY on BUF-26-T.Jones, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 26.

The Three Options

GO +0.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +2.50 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 65, worth -3.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 23, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.13 EP