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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 11 at the 27

New York Jets 7 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(10:30) 7-C.Catanzaro 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +0.30 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.92 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 27, worth -1.32 EP
KICK +0.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 37, worth -1.99 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model