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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 2 at the 35

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Tennessee Titans 10

What Actually Happened

(11:05) 37-J.Allen right end to TEN 34 for 1 yard (99-J.Casey; 59-W.Woodyard). Baltimore challenged the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 37-J.Allen right end to TEN 33 for 2 yards (99-J.Casey; 59-W.Woodyard).

The Three Options

GO +0.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.53 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 35, worth -1.95 EP
KICK +0.02 EP
  • 61% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 45, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model