Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 7 at the 86

Atlanta Falcons 3 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:28) 5-M.Bosher punts 45 yards to CAR 41, Center-47-J.Harris. 12-K.Clay MUFFS catch, and recovers at CAR 41. 12-K.Clay to CAR 41 for no gain (28-T.Ward).

The Three Options

GO -2.96 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.33 EP
58% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 86, worth -5.30 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model