Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 8 at the 73

Carolina Panthers 20 – Atlanta Falcons 17

(2:32) 5-M.Palardy punts 57 yards to ATL 16, Center-44-J.Jansen. 19-A.Roberts to ATL 21 for 5 yards (53-B.Jacobs; 55-D.Mayo).

The Three Options

GO -1.65 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.17 EP
63% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 73, worth -3.29 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model