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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 66

Carolina Panthers 0 – Atlanta Falcons 3

What Actually Happened

(11:06) 5-M.Palardy punts 53 yards to ATL 13, Center-44-J.Jansen. 19-A.Roberts to ATL 20 for 7 yards (54-S.Thompson). FUMBLES (54-S.Thompson), and recovers at ATL 22. 19-A.Roberts to ATL 23 for 1 yard (53-B.Jacobs). PENALTY on ATL-34-B.Poole, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 21.

The Three Options

GO +0.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.01 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 66, worth -3.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 24, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP