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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 7 at the 39

Atlanta Falcons 10 – Carolina Panthers 20

What Actually Happened

(8:20) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete deep left to 11-Ju.Jones [98-S.Lotulelei].

The Three Options

GO +0.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.72 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 39, worth -1.75 EP
KICK -0.04 EP
  • 55% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.34 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model