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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 70

Carolina Panthers 20 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(11:47) 5-M.Palardy punts 51 yards to ATL 19, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts.

The Three Options

GO -0.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.46 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 70, worth -3.65 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.99 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 28, worth -0.99 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP