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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 9 at the 27

Carolina Panthers 17 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(1:44) 9-G.Gano 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +0.88 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.80 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 27, worth -0.78 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 37, worth -1.67 EP
PUNT +0.30 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model