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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 30

Carolina Panthers 17 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(3:59) 1-C.Newton up the middle to ATL 28 for 2 yards (45-D.Jones). Taylor Moton reports as eligible

The Three Options

GO +2.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.10 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30, worth -1.09 EP
KICK +1.32 EP
  • 76% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 40, worth -1.73 EP
PUNT +0.25 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model