4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 66

Atlanta Falcons 10 – Carolina Panthers 17

What Actually Happened

(7:33) 5-M.Bosher punts 38 yards to CAR 28, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 12-K.Clay.

The Three Options

GO -0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.48 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.01 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 24, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.95 EP