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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 6 at the 13

Carolina Panthers 14 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(9:08) 9-G.Gano 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +1.84 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.60 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 13, worth -0.10 EP
KICK +2.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 23, worth -0.73 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model