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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 35

Atlanta Falcons 10 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(4:35) 24-D.Freeman right guard to CAR 35 for no gain (20-K.Coleman; 58-T.Davis). PENALTY on ATL-81-A.Hooper, Illegal Crackback, 15 yards, enforced at CAR 35.

The Three Options

GO +1.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.54 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.75 EP
KICK +0.35 EP
  • 65% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.44 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model