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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 6 at the 53

Carolina Panthers 0 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(10:43) 5-M.Palardy punts 50 yards to ATL 3, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-10-C.Samuel.

The Three Options

GO -0.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.15 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 53, worth -2.86 EP
KICK -1.68 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.69 EP
PUNT -0.74 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 15, worth -0.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model