Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 10 at the 57

Arizona Cardinals 7 – San Francisco 49ers 0

(1:47) 2-A.Lee punts 41 yards to SF 16, Center-49-J.Drescher. 81-T.Taylor to SF 18 for 2 yards (36-B.Baker).

The Three Options

GO -1.24 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.80 EP
68% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 57, worth -3.11 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model