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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 79

Arizona Cardinals 7 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(3:44) 2-A.Lee punts 58 yards to SF 21, Center-49-J.Drescher. 81-T.Taylor to SF 24 for 3 yards (36-B.Baker).

The Three Options

GO -0.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.80 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 79, worth -4.63 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.97 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 36, worth -1.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.21 EP