Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 14 at the 91

San Francisco 49ers 10 – Arizona Cardinals 20

(1:07) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-C.Beathard pass short right to 19-A.Robinson to SF 20 for 11 yards (20-D.Bucannon). Caught at SF 15. 5-YAC

The Three Options

GO -1.69 EP

What Happened

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.55 EP
71% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 91, worth -2.58 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.22 EP