Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 5 at the 57

Arizona Cardinals 20 – San Francisco 49ers 10

(1:56) 2-A.Lee punts 44 yards to SF 13, Center-49-J.Drescher. 17-V.Bolden to SF 13 for no gain (28-J.Bethel).

The Three Options

GO -1.16 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +0.58 EP
57% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 57, worth -2.45 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model