Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 9 at the 77

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Arizona Cardinals 7

(9:27) 5-B.Pinion punts 42 yards to ARI 35, Center-86-K.Nelson. 21-P.Peterson to ARI 37 for 2 yards (38-A.Colbert).

The Three Options

GO -2.37 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.58 EP
67% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 77, worth -4.35 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model