Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 18 at the 90

San Francisco 49ers 10 – Arizona Cardinals 17

(12:46) 5-B.Pinion punts 46 yards to ARI 44, Center-86-K.Nelson. 33-K.Williams to ARI 48 for 4 yards (86-K.Nelson).

The Three Options

GO -3.67 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.20 EP
75% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 90, worth -5.31 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model