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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 2 at the 7

Arizona Cardinals 14 – San Francisco 49ers 10

What Actually Happened

(13:35) 4-P.Dawson 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Drescher, Holder-2-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +3.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.80 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 7, worth +0.02 EP
KICK +1.78 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.22 EP