Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 5 at the 80

San Francisco 49ers 10 – Arizona Cardinals 14

(5:03) 5-B.Pinion punts 52 yards to ARI 28, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 33-K.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -2.08 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.17 EP
57% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 80, worth -4.54 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model