Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 13 at the 54

Arizona Cardinals 14 – San Francisco 49ers 10

(6:36) 2-A.Lee punts 39 yards to SF 15, Center-49-J.Drescher, fair catch by 17-V.Bolden.

The Three Options

GO -1.32 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.04 EP
72% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 54, worth -2.99 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model