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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 10 at the 38

San Francisco 49ers 3 – Arizona Cardinals 14

What Actually Happened

(:33) 5-B.Pinion punts 32 yards to ARI 6, Center-86-K.Nelson, downed by SF-31-R.Mostert.

The Three Options

GO +0.17 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +3.40 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 38, worth -1.06 EP
KICK +0.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.58 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 47, worth -1.58 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.77 EP