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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 2 at the 20

Arizona Cardinals 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:06) 4-P.Dawson 38 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-49-J.Drescher, Holder-2-A.Lee. P.Dawson's kick hit right upright.

The Three Options

GO +1.95 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.72 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 20, worth -1.22 EP
KICK +1.04 EP
What Happened
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.40 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30, worth -2.01 EP
PUNT -0.60 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.90 EP