Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 6 at the 71

Detroit Lions 3 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

(:09) 6-S.Martin punts 55 yards to PIT 16, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET-39-J.Agnew.

The Three Options

GO -1.60 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.92 EP
61% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 71, worth -3.89 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model