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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 14 at the 30

Detroit Lions 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(7:55) 5-M.Prater 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.47 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +5.10 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30, worth -0.90 EP
KICK +1.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.48 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 40, worth -1.67 EP
PUNT +0.35 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model