Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 12 at the 59

Pittsburgh Steelers 20 – Detroit Lions 15

(5:03) 4-J.Berry punts 44 yards to DET 15, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

The Three Options

GO -1.23 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.69 EP
70% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 59, worth -2.93 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model