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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 19 at the 20

Pittsburgh Steelers 10 – Detroit Lions 12

What Actually Happened

(9:25) 9-C.Boswell 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +0.64 EP
  • 20% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.43 EP
  • 80% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 20, worth -0.85 EP
KICK +1.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30, worth -1.51 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model