Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 6 at the 71

Detroit Lions 12 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

(13:35) 6-S.Martin punts 19 yards to DET 48, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.68 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.96 EP
61% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 71, worth -4.05 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model