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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 2 at the 16

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(12:17) 9-C.Boswell 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +2.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.92 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 16, worth -1.10 EP
KICK +1.27 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.47 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26, worth -1.65 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP