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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 5 at the 33

Detroit Lions 6 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

What Actually Happened

(2:19) 5-M.Prater 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.68 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.17 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.43 EP
KICK +0.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 43, worth -1.93 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model