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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 8 at the 47

Buffalo Bills 27 – Las Vegas Raiders 14

What Actually Happened

(5:04) 6-C.Schmidt punts 28 yards to LV 19, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-26-T.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.13 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 47, worth -2.15 EP
KICK -0.83 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.21 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.26 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 13, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model