Back to Game
Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
?
Q4
Buffalo Bills
4th & 1 at the 1
Buffalo Bills 20 – Las Vegas Raiders 7
What Actually Happened
(15:00) 5-T.Taylor up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
The Three Options
GO
+4.10 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
63% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.13 EP
- 37% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 1, worth +0.71 EP
KICK
+2.16 EP
- 98% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
- 2% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.56 EP
PUNT
+0.11 EP
- Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
