Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 8 at the 65

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Buffalo Bills 20

(7:27) 7-M.King punts 51 yards to BUF 14, Center-59-J.Condo. 15-B.Tate to BUF 20 for 6 yards (47-J.Cowser).

The Three Options

GO -1.73 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.07 EP
65% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 65, worth -3.78 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model