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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 45

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(10:59) 49-J.Olawale up the middle to BUF 44 for 1 yard (57-L.Alexander). FUMBLES (57-L.Alexander), and recovers at BUF 44. 49-J.Olawale to BUF 43 for 1 yard (57-L.Alexander). Measurement = first down. Buffalo challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)

The Three Options

GO +1.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.81 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 45, worth -2.43 EP
KICK -1.12 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.90 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 12, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model