Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 8 at the 68

Buffalo Bills 14 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(13:20) 6-C.Schmidt punts 55 yards to LV 13, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 30-J.Richard to LV 17 for 4 yards (58-M.Milano). FUMBLES (58-M.Milano), RECOVERED by BUF-35-M.Tolbert at LV 14. Penalty on LV-39-K.McGill, Offensive Holding, declined. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

The Three Options

GO -1.59 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.37 EP
63% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 68, worth -3.88 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model