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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 4 at the 17

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Cleveland Browns 6

What Actually Happened

(5:31) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

The Three Options

GO +1.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.97 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 17, worth -0.95 EP
KICK +1.45 EP
What Happened
  • 92% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 27, worth -1.39 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model