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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 4 at the 60

Minnesota Vikings 30 – Cleveland Browns 16

What Actually Happened

(4:54) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 44 yards to CLE 16, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 11-B.Treggs.

The Three Options

GO -0.63 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.77 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 60, worth -2.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 19, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model