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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 4 at the 69

Minnesota Vikings 15 – Cleveland Browns 13

What Actually Happened

(10:41) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 40 yards to CLE 29, Center-47-K.McDermott. 11-B.Treggs pushed ob at CLE 40 for 11 yards (40-K.Brothers).

The Three Options

GO -1.19 EP
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.70 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 69, worth -3.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 27, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model