4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 9 at the 17

Cleveland Browns 13 – Minnesota Vikings 15

What Actually Happened

(12:08) (Field Goal formation) 5-Z.Gonzalez 35 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +0.93 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.54 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 17, worth -0.74 EP
KICK +1.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 27, worth -1.20 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model