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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 4 at the 39

Minnesota Vikings 3 – Cleveland Browns 6

What Actually Happened

(7:37) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 30 yards to CLE 9, Center-47-K.McDermott, downed by MIN-81-B.Bell.

The Three Options

GO +0.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.59 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 39, worth -2.20 EP
KICK -0.64 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 48, worth -2.82 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.99 EP